Facts about Greece

18 key facts about Greece that will leave you totally up to date about a huge crisis
May 6, 2022 – 09:01 am
Facts about greece

Greece is heading toward a major vote Sunday that will both shape the future of its economy and Europe's monetary union. It is a complicated story, and here at Wonkblog, we've tried to give you a clear sense of what's going on and what's next.

But Anil Kashyap of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business has released an excellent primer of his own that's worth a read. Kashyap wrote the piece last weekend, before Greece officially defaulted June 29 on a key payment to the International Monetary Fund, and the situation continues to evolve into the weekend. In an e-mail, Kashyap notes a few other important developments since his primer came out, including that some Greek officials have pledged to resign if Greeks vote Yes on the referendum; that creditors won't negotiate anymore until after the vote; and that a new IMF debt analysis sheds additional light on the grave situation facing Greece.

Read over the primer's 18 questions and answers-reprinted here-and come away far more knowledgeable about Greece's crisis. (We have lightly edited a few points, marked with *, to reflect updates since the original version was published.)

1) How did Greece get into such trouble?

Greece from the mid-1990s until last year was constantly spending more than it was collecting in tax revenues. For most of this time, the country’s initially reported numbers showed small differences that were subsequently found to have been much larger. The revisions tended to be most substantial right after elections when a new government would find that its predecessor was much more profligate than had been reported. Because of these deficits, the country borrowed to cover the shortfalls and its debt burden was steadily rising.

In the fall of 2009, a then newly elected government reported that the deficit for that year was going to be 13.6 percent of economic output and that the deficits in 2007 and 2006 were also larger than had been reported. From that point onward, the world began to wonder if Greece really could pay the debt that it had issued or needed to default. Its borrowing costs rose sharply and the country began looking for ways to reduce its required debt payments and end its borrowing addiction.

2) Wasn’t Greece already bailed out in 2010?

By the spring of 2010 the excessive debt problem became unbearable and there was open speculation that Greece would default. The country had done this on four occasions previously since 1800. Much of the government debt was owed to banks outside of Greece, with the largest amounts in France and Germany. So if Greece had stopped paying, the French and German banks would have suffered substantial losses.

Greece was lent new money in 2010, but as Karl Otto Pohl, former head of the German central bank observed, at the time much of that money was used to repay the obligations owned by the French and German banks. The new lending was advertised by the politicians across Europe as a rescue for Greece. But it was at least as much a deal to buy time for the banks and other owners of Greek debt to avoid a default. Greece did avoid default, but the support came with requirements designed to make sure that the country end its chronic deficit spending.

3) Why did that rescue fail?

To justify the new lending, the lenders had to be assured that the deficits would end and that the country would grow enough to be able to service its debt. In May of 2010, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led at the time by Dominique Strauss Kahn, who had ambitions of running for the presidency of France, conducted an analysis to see if such a scenario was realistic. The report at the time concluded that if Greece undertook drastic reforms it could close its deficits and begin growing so that over time the debt (including the new lending that was being provided) would be manageable.

This analysis was later shown to be deeply flawed by the IMF itself. The Greeks did actually cut their deficits substantially, but many of the reforms that were supposed to support growth did not occur and the economy contracted substantially. So the debt, relative to the size of the economy, did not improve. Importantly, no debt was written off in 2010, even though many analysts, including some on the executive Board of the IMF, at the time believed that it was necessary and that the banks and other private sector owners of the debt should have taken some losses.

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Source: www.washingtonpost.com
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